Occasional Paper No.003

The recognition of Somaliland acts as a “Pandora’s Box,” offering Ethiopia a strategic maritime gateway while risking regional conflict and violating Somalia’s sovereignty. Amidst a diplomatic “encirclement” by Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, compounded by growing Egyptian influence in Djibouti, Ethiopia faces a critical choice: maintain its maritime vulnerability or recognize Somaliland to permanently reshape regional power dynamics.